M1 and M2 are decelrating, rising 4.0 and 4.5% at seasonally adjusted annual rates, down from 18.1% and 9.8% over the past twelve months. But they are still rising, and at a reasonable pace.  The other part of the puzzle is that velocity, the speed at which money circulates through the economy, seems to have stabilized.  This sets the stage for M3 to rise--the key indicator that monetary policy will at long last help the economy to grow!!
Are there other reasons to believe that the Fed will finally encourage economic growth? Stay tuned for more!

The G8 announced support for African leadership of poverty reduction in Africa.  While this seems to be only common sense, it is unique in  post-WWI history  and culminates a monumental turnaround in developed country thought about development.

After WWI development/reconstruction was dominated by the   Marshall Plan, which pretty much was a vehicle for the US to invest funds where the US thought best.


My first trip to Africa was a visit to Senegal in  the mid-1980s.  The farmers I was  working with were peanut farmers, but no one was helping them with peanuts  because the US peanut lobby didn’t want competition.   I asked why couldn’t we help with wheat, but the Canadians had claimed  that commodity.  What was the US  working on? Corn.

 In the mid-1990s USAID went to Uganda and made an offer to help  create a regional research organization that would assist countries in achieving  their national agricultural research goals, be eligible to   receive donor funding, spend funds on African priorities including a small grants activity that would support proposals for collaborative work among  African scientists in the region and with proposals being reviewed and funded in  a transparent process based on the quality of proposal.  
 
I was privileged to be at the meeting where this offer was tendered by USAID (with a previously brokered agreement) and accepted  by Dr. Joseph Mukiibi, then Director of the Uganda National Agricultural Research Organization.  In his acceptance speech Dr.  Mukiibi likened African pursuit of donor funds for expenditure on African priorities to his courtship of his wife.  “One
day”, Dr.  Mukiibi said, “walking to work I saw at the bus stop the most beautiful woman in the world.  So I stopped and introduced myself and asked her to marry me.  She laughed and said no.  But every day I made a practice of talking to her at the bus stop, and as she was getting on the bus, I always asked her to marry me.  And she always laughed and said no.  Then one day, as she was getting on the bus, she turned to me and said ‘Yes!’ . As I watched the bus pull away I thought, Oh s**t, what do I do now?”

The Association for Strengthening Agricultural Research in Eastern and Central Africa was created out of that process and  remains a successful, African-owned research organization today.  
 
The New Partnership for Africa's Development was adopted by the African Heads of State of the OAU in 2001 and ratified by the African Union in 2002 as the primary regional development body.  The Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) is NEPAD’s flagship program for promoting agricultural development to enhance growth and reduce poverty and hunger.  The success of ASARECA as an African owned organization successfully investing in agricultural growth was a significant contributory factor that helped enable the emergence of CAADP.

The success of CAADP was a significant contributory factor that helped enable the emergence of this week’s G8 agreement to support the African-owned New Alliance for nutrition and food security.

President Obama yesterday  recommited to the pledges made in his July 2009  speech in Ghana and  stated that the G8 was announcing a New Alliance for nutrition and food security that would accelerate the  progress made to date.  There are several key components of the New Alliance: an historical acknowledgement of African leaders as leaders of African efforts to end poverty and undernutrition, an emphasis on improved policies, donor concordance with African policy priorities, and accountability for progress against poverty.  President Obama also emphasized positive relationships with the private sector, although I think the emphasis on African leadership, donor concordance, and accountability are the key underpinning concepts that enable any meaningful relationship with the private sector.

The Guardian is reporting that the upcoming G8  summit will announce a New Alliance to increase food security and nutrition, apparently with  a focus on Africa.  This will be a useful offset to US biofuels policy--the Washington Post this morning reported that 39% of the US corn crop is headed for ethanol--which tends to increase food price levels and volatility by linking food crops to energy prices and volatility.  Details are forthcoming, hopefully this weekend.