James F Oehmke
  • Home
    • Publications
  • Contact
  • Interests
    • Up North
  • Oehmke's Economics Blog
  • Oehmke Economic Consulting
    • Cost Effectiveness Comparisons
  • Reducing African Poverty
    • Value Chains
    • Publications
    • Impact Assessment
    • Staple Foods
  • Resume

First Post!

10/27/2011

3 Comments

 

All is well in the world of economics today!

Europe has agreed on a plan to solve both the most immediate debt crises and to boost the European bailout fund.  Greece will take a 50% ‘haircut’, meaning that bondholders will get 50 cents on the dollar, which will help Greece’s immediate situation.  Boosting the bailout fund means fewer worries over potential future insolvencies.

 In the US, GDP rose 2.5%, and would have risen at a rate of 3.6% except for slow inventory growth.  With a growing economy, inventory growth will not lag for too long.  This means that if we can keep the underlying fundamentals at their current levels, then GDP growth is likely to accelerate.  In terms of the underlying fundamentals, the initial unemployment claims came in at 402,000, seasonally adjusted.  This is a neutral number.  On a not-seasonally adjusted basis claims were 34,000 fewer than they were a year ago, which is mild progress.  Better progress would be a decrease of 50,000+ from a year ago or a seasonally adjusted number in the 375-385K range.  With a slow holiday shopping season anticipated and therefore limited seasonal hiring, I expect that the seasonality adjustment factors will be pretty tough and that we won’t see exciting unemployment claims numbers before January.  Until then, keep your eye on both the seasonally adjusted and unadjusted unemployment numbers.

Markets reflected that all is well for a day.  The Dow closed up 2.9%, NASDAQ up 3.3% and the Russell 2000 up 5.2%.

3 Comments
hentai link
7/17/2012 07:12:23 am

How do you signup for a blog from Weebly?

Reply
Erin link
9/2/2021 10:47:59 am

Loved reading this thhanks

Reply
HENTAICOMICS link
2/18/2023 10:11:12 pm

Simple and very good site, that has more posts for us!
I always follow the posts here.

Reply



Leave a Reply.

    James F Oehmke

    My biases are socially liberal and fiscally conservative, but I try to present objective economic analysis and interpretation in my blog.

    Archives

    July 2012
    June 2012
    May 2012
    April 2012
    March 2012
    February 2012
    December 2011
    November 2011
    October 2011

    Categories

    All

    RSS Feed

Powered by Create your own unique website with customizable templates.